480
FXUS65 KVEF 151819
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1119 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Terrain-based, afternoon and evening convection will continue
  through the end of the week with greater coverage east of Las
  Vegas.

* Near-to-slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
  Thursday, with temperatures decreasing slightly heading into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Wednesday.

The next couple of afternoons and evenings will see primarily
terrain driven convection. Instability will favor Mohave, Lincoln
and Clark counties. DCAPE values are sufficient for storms to
produce gusty outflows. The latest HREF shows high probabilities (>
70%) for gusts > 30 mph in eastern Mohave County today and Thursday
afternoon. The outflows will generally be moving from east to west
and may reach the Colorado River Valley during the evening hours.
More uncertainty as to whether they will make their way as far west
as the Las Vegas Valley. An easterly wave will slowly work its way
across eastern and central Arizona on Friday and Saturday and should
act to enhance convection in Mohave County. The more widespread
flash flood concerns should be further to our east but storms will
produce localized heavy downpours. The monsoonal moisture will
remain in place through the period with continued afternoon and
evening convection into next week.

This afternoon and tomorrow will be the hottest days of the week.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 100s to low 110s in most
valleys around the Mojave Desert with overnight lows in the 80s to
low 90s. Hot daytime temperatures and warm nights offering little
relief combined with monsoonal humidity result in Moderate (Level 2
of 4) Heat Risk for most areas, with pockets of High (Level 3 of 4)
Heat Risk including the Las Vegas Valley both days. There should be
some improvement by Friday as moisture and precipitation potential
increase and temperatures fall several degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Barring
any convective influences, expecting winds to largely remain light
and follow typical, daily patterns. However, there are chances for
thunderstorm influence. Odds of seeing storms in the vicinity are
low (~10%) and any that do form should remain on the high terrain.
Chances for east-southeast outflow from thunderstorms across
northwestern Arizona are higher (~40%). Worst case scenario would be
gusts around 30 knots, but the most-likely scenario (if the outflow
reaches the valley) is gusts 10-20 knots sometime between 01z-05z.
FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds with temps to exceed 100F until
06z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Isolated to scattered
convection anticipated today across northwestern Arizona, southern
Nevada, and northern Inyo County. Greatest coverage in Lincoln and
Mohave counties. Gusty outflow winds and brief downpours will be the
main concern with any convection. Main uncertainty is whether
easterly outflow from storms in northwestern Arizona will make it
into the Colorado River Valley and Vegas Valley this evening. Best
chances in the former (60%), with ~40% odds in the latter. Southerly
breezes up the Colorado River Valley expected overnight. FEW-SCT mid-
level and high clouds where convection is more sparse, and SCT-BKN
conditions where it is more widespread.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Woods

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office