220
FXUS65 KVEF 112303
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
303 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy winds and scattered, light showers continue through Friday.

* A more potent system arrives next, bringing widespread
  precipitation, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

A trough continues to linger offshore, pushing in widespread clouds
and areas of light rain. As the day progresses, expecting showers
(and maybe a few rumbles of thunder) to be focused in Lincoln and
northern Mohave counties. Meanwhile, gusty southwest winds of 20-35
mph encompass most of the forecast area. Precipitation chances stick
around in our northern zones tomorrow (~25%), but as the low drifts
south and east Thursday night into Friday, those chances shift into
Mohave County. At the same time, breezes turn northerly across the
area.

A relatively calm Saturday is in store as we await the arrival of
our next system. Southwest winds begin to pick up Sunday afternoon,
but precipitation is likely to hold off until Monday. It looks like
this could be a prolonged event as the trough reloads several times
throughout the week. Confidence is highest on Monday, when the lead
shortwave is forecast to move through. This is when the main
moisture plume pushes in, bringing widespread precipitation as PoPs
range from 50-90% across the area. Snow levels have trended upward
in the last 24-48 hours, but even if this continues, not expecting
them to be above 7000 feet given the depth of the trough. Thus,
heavy snow and moderate-to-major winter impacts are likely (50-80%)
in the higher terrain, including the Sierra, White, and Spring
Mountains. Below the snowline, rain should be more light-to-moderate
in intensity given rather typical PWAT values. However, there is a
~10% of isolated thunderstorms which could result in locally heavy
rainfall. In terms of winds, gusty conditions are likely with
widespread 40-80% probabilities of 40+ mph gusts. Beyond Monday,
confidence quickly drops as models diverge on the
timing/placement/strength of subsequent shortwaves. Nonetheless,
Tuesday-Thursday is expected to remain active with precipitation,
winds, and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Southerly gusts of 15-22 knots continue this afternoon before
gradually weaken this evening and becoming light and variable by
Thursday morning. 10-20% chance of a light shower with abundant
clouds between 10-15kft. The limited rain chances come to an end
this evening as sky conditions improve.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Southerly to
southwesterly breezes continue with gusts generally 15-25 knots.
Winds subside after sunset, turning northerly in our northwestern
areas overnight. Isolated to scattered showers/virga, particularly
in Lincoln and northern Mohave County where precipitation chances
are over 50%. Widespread clouds between 10-15kft. Any precipitation
comes to an end tonight as sky conditions improve. Low (20%) chance
of showers Thursday afternoon across the southern Great Basin.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Woods


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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office