274
FXUS65 KVEF 142301
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
401 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty north-northwesterly winds expected Thursday and Friday with
  gust speeds between 40 and 50 mph.

* Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

Gusty north winds generally between 20 and 30 mph continue today as
a closed low weakens into an open wave and lifts eastward out of the
area. On Thursday, energy left behind from the aforementioned open
wave will combine with a vort lobe riding along the leftover
northwesterly flow aloft and will close off over southeastern
California. This will bring with it a 65-75 kt jet and corresponding
surface north-northeasterly wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph. This
trajectory of winds will result in easterly downslope winds, which
could bring occasional gusts between 50 and 60 mph to locations
nestled in valleys along the eastern flanks of area mountains
including Interstate 40 east of the Hualapai Mountains in southern
Mohave County and Highway 160 in Pahrump. As a result, the Wind
Advisory in place for the Colorado River Valley, southern Clark
County, and eastern San Bernardino County from 8 AM Thursday through
11 AM Friday has been expanded to include Death Valley National
Park, the Clark County Mountains, far southern Nye County, and most
of Mohave County.

Confidence continues to increase that the closed low over southern
California will usher moisture from Hurricane Simon into the region
over the weekend. Ensemble means indicate that PWATs will increase
to around 0.75 inches across the Mojave Desert and will stick around
into early next week. That said, without instability, this moisture
is unlikely to bring precipitation... However, a longwave trough is
progged to swing into central California early next week, which will
provide the aforementioned instability needed to bring precipitation
chances back to the forecast area. Right now, there are 30 to 40
percent chances of precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday areawide
with snow levels between 8000 and 9000 feet. Stay tuned as this
forecast develops and confidence increases through the week.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
North-northeast winds this afternoon with gusts to around 20 kts
before becoming light and more variable this evening. Northerly
winds will re-develop on Thursday morning with gusts between 20 and
30 kts. Otherwise, dry conditions and clear skies.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Northerly breezes will
continue across much of the region today and tomorrow. Wind gusts
generally 15-30 knots. Winds will relax in most locations this
evening and overnight but re-develop Thursday morning with gusts of
25-40 knots. VFR conditions under clear skies.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Czyzyk

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office