580
FXUS66 KLOX 142117 AAA
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
217 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...14/237 AM.

A Santa Ana wind pattern will create much warmer temperatures
this week as well as gusty northeast winds at times, strongest
Thursday and Friday. Another significant cool down is likely
into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...14/217 PM.

The first Santa Ana event for the season is going to be a strong
one. Forecast models and ensemble gradients are all pointing to a
strong event with with 50kt northeast winds at 850mb and surface
gradients around 8-9mb from the east. There have been some gusty
north to northeast winds to 30-40mph this morning in the San
Gabriel Mountains and across the western San Fernando Valley. But
the primary days will be Thursday through Saturday, with Friday
being the strongest. During that peak period wind gusts across the
LA/Ventura mountains are expected to reach as high as 70 mph
while the LA/Ventura Valleys and Ventura coastal areas peak at
around 55 mph. Typical Santa Anas do not include the LA Metro
area, Antelope Valley, or Central Coast but some of the latest
model forecasts indicate at least some 15-30 mph gusts in those
areas.

Temperatures have started to warm up today and that trend will
continue through Friday. Due to the strong subsidence associated
with this event and relatively warmer air aloft this will be a
very hot Santa Ana, with coastal areas being the warmest. Model
forecasts for today had a 3-6 degree cold bias so there`s a good
chance that there will a similar bias the next couple days. With
that in mind high temperatures have been increased by at least a
few degrees Thursday and Friday. Most coastal areas, including
SLO and Santa Barbara Counties will be in the 90s by Friday and
heat advisories are in effect. Valleys will be a little cooler
but still in the mid 80s to mid 90s. And there is a 5-10 percent
chance of some 100 degree highs as well.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...14/201 PM.

A rapid cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday for coastal
areas as a low pressure system moving into the Pac NW initiates
strong return to onshore flow. Coastal areas will drop 10-15
degrees from Saturday and could see a return of low clouds and fog
as early as Monday. Valleys and other interior areas will
maintain their respective temperatures through around Monday
before the cooling finally arrives with the next storm system on
Tuesday.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of that
system. Models initially had it moving much farther inland but
later solutions have trended more to the west. Roughly 20-30% of
the current solutions show some light rain chances as early as
late Tuesday, but there are just as many solutions holding off
until as late Thursday due to the storm tracking even farther off
the coast. Either way, there is high confidence in a much cooler
pattern by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1640Z.

At 1609Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component
will be AOB 7 kts 10Z-16Z.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...14/216 PM.

Santa Ana Winds will affect our inner waters south of Point
Conception Thursday through Saturday morning. Strongest during
the late night into early afternoon hours. These hazardous NE-E
winds will be focused from Ventura to Santa Monica and out past
Anacapa Island. These winds could become hazardous across the San
Pedro Channel Friday morning with a 25% chc of 25 kt gusts at
Avalon Harbor. The worst conditions are expected Friday morning
with the most concern nearshore from Ventura-Malibu. Gale Watches
have been issued to target these waters. Refer to MWWLOX for more
details. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed for the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast Friday morning due to gusty
offshore winds.

There is a solid signal for a trough early to mid next week
which could bring hazardous boating conditions along with
rain chances to our coastal waters. Will monitor this system.

Long period swells from the west and the south are affecting the
coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can
make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small
vessels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...14/909 AM.

Offshore flow will steadily increase each day through Thursday or Friday,
then weaken over the weekend. During the Thursday and Friday peak,
northeast winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 40 to 60 mph will be common
over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with
localized gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the mountains. Winds will be unusually
widespread on Friday, when much of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo will
experience a few hours windy conditions, especially the interior
mountains where winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
expected. Meanwhile, the air will rapidly warm and dry. High temperatures
between 85 and 95 will be common by Friday, warmest near the coast where
the risk for heat illness is high. Minimum humidities will generally lower
into the 5 to 15 percent range by Friday, with poor overnight recoveries
starting Thursday.

All of this will add up to a high risk for large fires and rapid
fire growth over most of the area, especially over Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties as well as interior San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara Counties where Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches
are in place. While some areas received rain earlier this week,
the dry day today will largely remove any benefiting effects on
the fuels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-370>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT
      Saturday for zones
      340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366>368. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Thursday afternoon
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT
      Friday for zones 369-375-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 6 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT
      Saturday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>382-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday
      afternoon for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
FIRE...RK
SYNOPSIS...RM

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office