808
FXUS66 KLOX 112239
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
239 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/238 PM.

Other than a few lingering showers around this afternoon, expect
dry conditions and a warming trend for late this week through
Saturday. A strong storm system will affect the region starting
on Sunday and Monday, bringing the potential for heavy
precipitation with flooding and mountain snow, thunderstorms,
strong winds, as well as marine and beach hazards. These
conditions could last through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...11/238 PM.

Early-afternoon satellite loops indicate that the forecast area
remains along the poleward side of an extensive channel of
moisture streaming east-northeastward from well offshore Baja
California to the Central Rockies. The interaction of a
reinforcing upper cyclonic circulation passing southward to the
west of 30N 130W is facilitating the development of an inflection
point in the moisture channel -- within a couple hundred miles
south of the Channel Islands. This is causing the back edge of
midlevel moisture to stall over the eastern/southern forecast
area, despite the maintenance of the initial upper low presently
located near the Central California coast.

As a result, it appears that -- while large-scale ascent over the
local area is considerably weaker today than yesterday -- modest
ascent peripheral to the reinforcing cyclone persists over the
region (albeit decreasing). And with lingering midlevel moisture,
slight chances for showers continue through late this afternoon
across most areas south of Pt. Conception. This shallow convective
activity will form and re-generate amidst modest diurnal heating
and in the vicinity of sea-breeze boundaries and mountain-valley
circulations, and then dissipate quickly by the evening in
response to nocturnal cooling. To the north, weakening upper-
level ascent around the initial upper low will still maintain low
precipitation chances (generally less than 30%) north of Pt.
Conception through late this afternoon. Any additional rainfall
amounts should be a tenth inch or less area-wide. Also, while the
back-edge of richer moisture aloft is stalling over the area,
most of this moisture is concentrated high in the atmosphere, as
the midlevel dry slot from the initial upper low previously
overspread the region. Thus, a general clearing trend will
continue to be noted through the rest of today, with increasing
sunshine especially for locations west/north of L.A. County.
However, a steady stream of high clouds will persist over the L.A.
area -- through tonight and all the way through Thursday night --
owing to the steady-state character of the moisture channel,
anchored by the circulation around the reinforcing upper
perturbation.

In response to these developments, precipitation development is
mostly not expected starting later this evening. While the
initial upper low will eventually move southward along the
California Coast Thursday into early Friday, its diffusion and
prior influx of the dry slot will be unfavorable for
precipitation, though a couple mountain showers cannot be entirely
ruled out around the peak of the diurnal heating cycle on
Thursday, especially over the San Gabriels, however this activity
should remain largely inconsequential. Thereafter, a low-
amplitude, progressive, and shortwave ridge will cross the region
through Saturday, resulting in no precipitation area-wide.

Also, VAD Wind Profile data suggest gradual weakening of the low-
level jet that was earlier reinforced in conjunction with the
developing moisture-channel inflection. Surface observations
across the San Gabriels indicate wind gusts continue reaching
around 30-40 mph in isolated locations. However, with the
reinforcing upper low gaining further displacement away from the
area along its southward track well offshore, the low-level mass
response crossing the mountains and related surface winds are
subsiding (albeit slowly owing to the complex interaction between
the two upper lows), and the earlier Wind Advisory was allowed to
expire at 1PM PST this afternoon. Nevertheless, locally gusty,
though sub-advisory-level, southerly winds will be likely through
this evening over the high terrain. Subsequently, a surface ridge
will be slow to build north of the area causing local pressure
gradients to turn modestly offshore and favor both weak Santa Ana
winds and weak NW/N winds for Thursday into Friday. However,
overall, winds will be notably weaker than they were during the
past 24 hours.

Temperatures through Thursday will remain cool (near to below
normal) in most areas with highs in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures
in the coastal valleys and L.A. Basin will rise into the upper
60s and the lower 70s for Friday into Saturday, as midlevel
heights rise. However, the strength of warming on Saturday will be
tempered by the influx of mid and high clouds ahead of the next
system. A few areas of patchy fog near the coasts and in the
southern Salinas Valley cannot be ruled out each morning and
night, especially when the ridge builds over the area Friday into
Saturday, though confidence in fog development is too limited for
inclusion in the forecast -- given the progressive pattern aloft
and uncertainty in the re-establishment of the marine layer.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...11/238 PM.

Medium-range model guidance is continuing to suggest increasing
probabilities for a much cooler pattern featuring multiple rounds
of precipitation starting Sunday-Monday. This would be in
conjunction with a longwave, high-amplitude trough developing
offshore and along the Pacific Coast vicinity, and eastward.
Uncertainty inherent to the forecast regarding weather conditions
and related impacts remains significant. However, in general,
numerical models are offering above-average consensus regarding
the longwave pattern over the local area for this distant of a
time range. While the details remain uncertain, there is growing
concern for heavy precipitation and cool-temperature impacts in
the extended outlook starting Sunday and continuing throughout
much of next week.

At this time, numerical models are gaining consensus on the most
energy coming through Sunday through Monday, in the form of a
complex, deep trough perhaps containing multiple low centers.
While exhibiting some characteristics similar to the system that
affected the local area this past Tuesday night, the upcoming
Sunday-Monday system appears to be associated with considerably
colder 500-mb temperatures, perhaps as low as around -30C. Some
model solutions indicate a prominent shift in the tilt of the
parent upper trough to negative during the emergence of the
energy, characterized by a 500-mb speed maximum perhaps upwards
of 100 kt. The surface reflection of these upper features is
comparatively more diffuse owing to the broader upper troughing,
though intense low-level mass responses and atmospheric momentum
should undoubtedly be boosted by the intense ageostrophic
circulation around the jet streak. So, while the complex
interactions between upper low centers is highly uncertain and
will influence mesoscale-driven impacts, the large-scale pattern
is appearing increasingly conducive for convection to spread
across much of the area, accompanied by bursts of heavy rain in
one or more squall lines capable of flash flooding, strong to
perhaps severe convective or gradient wind gusts, and heavy
mountain snow with snow levels falling to around 6 kft. The exact
details and timing are uncertain, though a wide array of hazards
is becoming increasingly likely Sunday-Monday.

Looking further ahead, the aforementioned cold core will remain
anchored across the western CONUS throughout much of the
remainder of next week, reinforced by multiple impulses of
compact vorticity and accompanying speed maxima pivoting through
the western rim of the larger-scale troughing. It appears Southern
California will be beneath the trajectory of multiple impulses.
Each impulse will have the potential to boost precipitation rates
and winds within a rather long duration of on-and-off showers and
blustery conditions. Significant dispersion exists amongst models
concerning these impulses, though next Wednesday-Thursday is a
more-likely period of stronger jet energy passing over the local
area, providing more precipitation and gusty winds. Regardless,
temperatures through the week in most areas will be in the 50s and
lower 60s -- below seasonal normal readings -- while snow levels
gradually fall in response to cold advection with each passing
impulse. Cold-weather impacts could become of increasing concern
through the week.

Regarding precipitation totals through the period, there remains
substantial variability from model to model, though most areas
will likely experience at least 1 inch of liquid-equivalent of
precipitation (perhaps upwards of a few to several inches of
precipitation). The progressive nature of each impulse following
the Sunday-Monday more-favorable-for-flooding event may tend to
mitigate subsequent flooding impacts. However, increasingly
saturated ground conditions could offset the short-duration
precipitation character to maintain, or even boost, flooding
concerns through the week, and uncertainty regarding hydrological
impacts grows quickly through the course of next week. And then
regarding storm-total snow in the mountains, elevations above 6
kft could receive upwards of multiple feet of snow. As snow levels
lower, lighter snowfall accumulations -- though still potentially
significant -- could impact elevations as low as 3 or 4 kft
including the Grapevine of the Interstate-5 corridor, if enhanced
mositure can adequately phase with cooling aloft. This will depend
on numerous mesoscale factors for which uncertainty is
significant.

Interests across the local area are encouraged to monitor the
latest information from the National Weather Service in
Los Angeles/Oxnard, California, as forecast details become
refined over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1737Z.

At 1659Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer up to around
7000 feet.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. There is a 25%
chance of LIFR conditions developing at any site from 12/08Z to
12/16Z due to recent rains. Most likely at KPRB (30%).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of
1SM BR OVC004 conds 12/08Z-12/16Z. Good confidence that any east
wind component remains below 6 kts through the forecast period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of
1SM BR OVC004 conds 12/08Z-12/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...11/208 PM.

The cold front has moved eastward and is now over land. Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will linger at least into the
evening hours especially across the Outer Waters north of Pt
Conception. The swing or overnight shift may issue a SCA across
the inner waters south of Point Conception for Thursday afternoon
and evening timeframe (60% chance).

There is a moderate chance for SCA conditions (winds and/or seas)
across the Outer waters Thursday afternoon through Saturday. At
times, these hazardous conditions could reach the nearshore waters
along the Central coast and western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel.

Another storm system will enter the region Sunday or Monday,
bringing hazardous winds and seas along with rain to the entirety
of the coastal waters. There is a moderate chance for widespread
Gale Force winds early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...11/209 PM.

Southwest and west facing shores will be particularly vulnerable
to developing the southerly swell and surf through this evening,
especially the Santa Barbara South Coast, Ventura County Line, Leo
Carrillo, and Zuma Beach.

Swell and surf will likely drop below high surf advisory criteria
for Thursday, but high surf is likely to develop again from
Friday. It is likely that the swell and surf will remain at or
above high surf criteria through the upcoming weekend.

The latest swell models continue to highlight a period of very
large waves developing for early next week. There is a high to
likely (50-70 percent) chance of widespread high surf between
Sunday night and Wednesday as a combination of southwesterly and
west-northwesterly swells impact the coasts. Sets above 10 feet
will be possible across all coasts, but higher chances for west to
northwest facing coasts. There is a 20-40% chance of damaging sets
developing between Tuesday and Wednesday, highest for northwest-
facing shores along the Central Coast. In addition, there is also
some concern for coastal flooding. However, confidence is low with
how impactful it will be.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for
      zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cohen
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
BEACHES...DB/BL/Hall
SYNOPSIS...Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office