055
FXUS66 KLOX 160400
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
900 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...15/105 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this
week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and
Antelope Valley Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming
focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is
a chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...15/859 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today was a rather typical day with mostly sunny skies and cool
temperatures from about 1 to 5 degrees below normal. Northwest to
west winds were below advisory levels through the area, with some breezy
spots in the Antelope Valley and foothills.

Sundowner winds have developed over the western Santa Ynez Range
tonight, but should to remain below advisory levels with gusts of
35 to 40 mph expected. Otherwise, expect to see patchy fog in the
Salinas River Valley and possibly the LA Basin briefly during the
early morning hours. Going into Thursday morning, winds will
increase and turn offshore, with the strongest gusts near the I-5
corridor and Antelope Valley. This will likely lead to warming
some warming near the coasts, especially for Santa Barbara and San
Luis Obispo County. Wind advisories were issued for the Central
Coast as afternoon winds increase, with gusts to 35 mph expected.
As winds shift to the northeast Thursday evening, they strengthen
further, and wind advisories were issued to cover these. Will
likely need wind advisories Thursday night for the Antelope
Valley and foothills, along with Santa Ana prone areas by Friday
morning.

***From Previous Discussion***

A cold upper low continues to plot a path through the Great Basin
and into Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty
north to northeast winds to portions of southwest California. The
initial onset of gusty winds will be overnight tonight into
Thursday morning across the Grapevine region, the western portion
of the Antelope Valley, and into Santa Clarita and possibly the
Porter Ranch area. A wind advisory has been issued for that
through Thursday morning. The northerly winds will create some
downslope warming across the coast and valleys tomorrow leading to
2-4 degrees of warming there. However, thick high clouds will
move in overnight tonight that will make skies mostly cloudy at
least through mid afternoon.

Upper level winds will shift more northeast Thursday night into
Friday creating our next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning
Friday through mid afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level
winds across the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura
Counties and possibly low end high wind warning winds in the
mountains. Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt so there is
20-30% chance that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated
lower elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand
Oaks area of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica
mountains.

Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push
temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coast and
valleys.

Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into
Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will
continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper
80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the
mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/155 PM.

There remains a lot of uncertainty about next week but regardless
the impacts locally will be minimal. Cooling is likely Sunday as
gradients turn onshore flow ahead of a cold upper low moving down
the coast from the Pac NW. However, still expecting highs in the
80s in the valleys and mid 70s to around 80 in Downtown LA and
other inland coastal areas.

The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on
the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding
down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though
the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as
little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for
coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as
well, though amounts would be very light and could start as early
as Monday night or as late as Wednesday. No rain is a possible
outcome as well.

&&

.AVIATION...15/2253Z.

At 2120Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2700 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in CAVU conds for all sites through this evening.

Chances that CIG/VSBY restrictions develop after midnight:
KLAX (40%), KLGB (40%), KSMO (30%), and KSMX (30%)

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conds expected thru this
evening. There is a 40% chance of Low-MVFR CIGs (010-015) develop
between 16/08Z and 16/16Z. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...15/805 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. From now through Friday, high confidence in a
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas.
From Thursday afternoon thru Thursday night, there is a 50-60%
chance of GALE force winds and a GALE WATCH has been issued for
all Outer water zones. For Saturday through Monday, there is a
20-30% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. From now through Thursday, high
confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening
hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening.
For Friday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level
winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel
Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will
remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday, there
is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south
to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro Channel. For
Saturday thru Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 8 AM
      PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday
      for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT
      Thursday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late
      Thursday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...RAT/DB
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office