749
FXUS66 KLOX 300506
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1006 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...29/1002 PM.

Cooler conditions will occur today and Monday. More warm,
tropical moisture could return Tuesday through Thursday. Marine
layer clouds will gradually redevelop, and increase in coverage
Sunday into early this coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...29/1005 PM.

***UPDATE***

The cooling arrived today right on schedule. Most areas today
cooled 3 to 6 degrees. Most highs today ended up a few degrees blo
normal except notably the SBA south cst and the VTA/LA county
csts. Most areas will see another 3 to 6 degrees of cooling
tomorrow.

The SBA-SMX gradient is at -4.4 mb and advisory level gusts have
developed across the western portion of the SBA south coast. The
advisory will continue through 0600 Sunday.

The low cloud potential seems pretty low and low clouds will
likely only occur across the SBA county west coast.

Current forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned.

***From Previous Discussion***

More noticeable cooling is expected for Sunday, followed by below
normal temperatures by Monday due to trough to the north
impacting the region.

The marine layer is likely to become more established with
greater inland coverage by Monday morning, due to falling 500 mb
heights, less mid and upper level moisture, and increasing onshore
flow.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, there is around a 20 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms focused over LA and Ventura County. This
is a result of more tropical mositure that may be shuttled into
the region, as the bottom of an upper level trough dips into
SoCal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...29/1249 PM.

There is a small chance that tropical moisture and thus showers
and thunderstorm risk will linger into Wednesday, but is most
likely to be dry. Otherwise mostly quiet weather with a gradual
warming trend is favored for Wednesday into the following weekend.
An upper level troughing pattern appears likely for a fairly long
duration, which will maintain a robust marine layer at the coasts
and coastal plains. Somewhere around September 7-9th there are
signals for another round of tropical moisture to impact SoCal.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0505Z.

At 0430Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep with an
inversion to 2900 feet with a temperature of 28 degrees C.

Low confidence in TAF at KSBP with a 40% chance for LIFR-IFR conds
from 07Z-17Z.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KSMX. There is a 30% chance for no
low clouds. Otherwise timing of arrival may be off by 2 hours and
there is a 20% chance for VLIFR conds and FG.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at remaining sites. Less than 10%
chance for IFR conds for LA County coastal sites 10Z-17Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is less than 10% chance of
BKN005-009 conds 10Z-17Z. Good confidence in any east wind
component remaining below 7 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/725 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds
(20-30 knots) and steep, choppy seas for the outer waters. These
hazardous conditions will reach into the nearshore waters along
the Central Coast and into the Santa Barbara Channel at times
(especially during the afternoon/evening hours). Local wind gusts
may approach 35 knots near Point Conception in the afternoon and
evening hours through tonight. Conditions are expected to
improve Monday with only local SCA level wind gusts near Point
Conception Monday and Tuesday. Chances for more widespread SCA
winds increase Wednesday into the remainder of the week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday afternoon
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office