860
FXUS66 KLOX 012109
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
109 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...01/105 PM.

Steady cooling trend through Monday with night to morning low
clouds and fog. Gusty west to north winds will form this
afternoon and continue through early Tuesday. Widespread moderate
to locally strong winds northwest to northeast likely Wednesday
through Saturday, with possible showers over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...01/104 PM.

A trough will swing through California fairly quickly today,
moving east out of California by Monday evening. This trough will
help facilitate a fairly dramatic cooldown region- wide, with
further cooling occurring Monday as the trough moves through the
state. By Monday, high temperatures in the high 60s to mid 70s
will be common across Southwest California. As the trough swings
through Monday, southwest flow will turn sharply northwest, save
for localized northeast winds across Santa Barbara and San Luis
Obispo interior mountains. Gusts of 25 to 45 mph will be common
across interior mountains to southwest Santa Barbara County with
Wind Advisories across these areas by Monday evening (except this
evening for southwest Santa Barbara County). There may be some
light precipitation on the north slopes of northern Los Angeles
and Ventura County at the border of Kern County with the upslope
flow. Then fairly weak offshore flow, with some localized areas of
20-35 mph, will take over on Tuesday as the trough begins to
weaken near the Rockies. Offshore flow combined with a weak pop up
ridge will contribute to a few to several degrees of warming,
with the San Fernando Valley potentially touching the low 80s
again. A more expansive blanket of low clouds will likely return
tonight into Monday, potentially extending into coastal valleys.
A deeper marine layer should limit dense fog concerns.

A second, inside slider trough approaching from the north will
begin to boost northerly winds again by Wednesday evening to at
least as strong and widespread as Mondays winds.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...01/108 PM.

High confidence in stronger than normal winds at least for
Thursday and Friday, although lower confidence in how strong,
widespread, and long lasting they may be. Model trends have been
towards a stronger, slower moving system, increasing the coverage
and duration of winds, possibly even into the weekend.

Advisory level winds are likely to continue Thursday through at
least Saturday, although the coverage will likely change from
impacting areas prone to north winds to more of a Santa Ana wind
set up by the weekend with more widespread winds into coastal
valleys to coasts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There is a
30-40 percent chance for warning level winds at times late
Wednesday through the Friday or Saturday time frame, focused
across interior mountains into the Antelope Valley. Fortunately,
somewhat recent rains greatly limit fire weather concerns despite
the potential for strong winds.

A warming trend is likely by the weekend with warmer valleys
potentially pushing back into the 80s.

Still looking mostly dry through at least the next 10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1759Z.

At 1651Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced
based inversion with a top at 2200 ft and a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight minimums off by one
or two categories.

KLAX...Fair confidence in CIG forecast. Arrival and Clearing
times of LIFR to IFR (003-007) may be off +/- 3 hours, with a 30%
chance CIGs do not develop. High confidence in wind forecast with
no significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for
a 20% chance of V/LIFR conditions from 02/10 to 02/17Z. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...01/827 AM.

For the Outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds
will continue across the waters south of Point Conception through
Monday. These winds will increase in coverage and speed. Local
gusts to GALE force (35 kts) is possible Monday afternoon/eve near
the Channel Islands. The axis of strongest winds will shift
westward and expand to the north during this time frame.
Resulting in low- end SCA winds across northern waters. SCA level
NW winds of 20-30 kts will be common across all Outer Waters by
Tuesday evening. Winds will become strongest Wednesday morning
through late Thursday night, especially during the afternoon/eve
hours. During this period, there is a 60% chance of GALES and 30%
chance for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast. There is
a non- zero chance for Storm Force winds, but more likely outcome
would be moderate to high end GALES. SCA winds will likely linger
through the weekend. SCA seas expected Wednesday through possibly
Saturday morning.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA level W winds
up to 25 kt expected across the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon.
By the evening, these winds will expand to include much of the
waters adjacent to the Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Winds will
increase on Monday, especially across the SB Channel where there
is a 50-60% chance of low-end GALES during the afternoon/eve hours
focused near the Channel Islands. Tuesday looks to be the calmest
day where winds could drop below SCA levels for much of the waters
excluding western portion of the SB Channel. Wednesday afternoon
through Friday morning SCA winds are likely across the SB Channel.
There is a moderate chance (40%) of Wednesday afternoon/eve across
western portion of the SB Channel. Offshore flow tilts more from
the east starting Friday thus waters typically impacted by Santa
Ana Winds will need to keep in mind for more SCA winds potential
into Weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3
      AM PST Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday
      for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Monday to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late
      Monday night for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RM/BL
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...RM/BL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office