861
FXUS65 KPSR 112300
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026


.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A changing weather pattern will help to bring some unsettled
  weather into the region late this week with rain chances on
  Friday for portions of Arizona.

- After dry and still warm conditions this weekend, another
  weather system may bring even better rain chances early next
  week along with noticeably cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Satellite imagery early this afternoon reveals that the overall
synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged from this morning, with a
deep trough just off the coast of California with two distinct PV
centers. The more northern PV center just started to move onshore
in north central California. Visible satellite imagery also shows
an abundance of cloud cover associated with this trough with the
leading edge of the cloud cover streaming into Arizona. The
additional cloud cove today has allowed for slightly cooler
temperatures from yesterday. As of 1pm MST/12pm PST, temperatures
are sitting in the 70s across the lower deserts and in the 60s
across the higher terrain areas. with a couple more hours of
heating, temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper
70s across the lower deserts and in the upper 60s to low 70s
across the higher terrain. The trough will weaken and slowly move
east/southeastward tomorrow, but heights aloft will largely remain
unchanged and may only drop 1-2 dm. Therefor, temperatures
tomorrow will are forecasted to be very similar to today. With
afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the
lower deserts and in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher
terrain.

There has been a noticeable increase in moisture over our area
out ahead of the trough, as is evident by the mid and high level
clouds and dew points in the 40s. Additionally, PWATs are in a
0.4-0.6" range across our region. Despite this increase in
moisture, with the PV centers and associated trough remaining west
of our area, no precipitation chances are expected through
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/...
The trough to our west is expected to weaken tonight into
Thursday before finally shifting into our region on Friday. Models
are still uncertain with how much energy and moisture will be
available for our region on Friday, but they are mostly trending
toward slightly better moisture briefly advecting into southern
and central Arizona for Friday. The EPS is a bit more on the
drier side, but it has been trending upward with PWAT anomalies
between 175-200% from Phoenix and areas to the east. The other
unknown is the exact track and strength of the main vort center on
Friday with the GEFS showing stronger energy. The GEFS mean QPF
for Friday has around 0.10-0.15" for Phoenix to as much as 0.50"
over the higher terrain east of Phoenix, whereas the EPS only has
around 20% of the GEFS`s QPF. Considering the trends, the EPS may
be the outlier and the latest NBM PoPs are likely too low. The
timing for the potential rain on Friday looks to be from around
mid morning through early evening. Temperatures may also drop a
good deal on Friday across south-central and eastern Arizona due
to the return of cloudy skies and the rain potential. Models have
been trending even cooler because of the increasing rain
potential with forecast highs now only in the upper 60s to around
70 degrees for Phoenix on Friday.

Upper level ridging is then forecast to quickly shift eastward
into the region Friday night into Saturday and lasting through
most of Sunday. This will bring drying conditions and at least
overall sunny skies on Saturday. Temperatures should also bounce
back this weekend with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s across
the lower deserts. Saturday night into Sunday should however
bring partly to mostly cloudy skies as the next deep trough will
be settling in off the coast of California. This trough is
forecast to become quite deep with negative upper level height
anomalies dipping below the 10th percentile of climatology off the
coast of California Sunday through at least Monday. Model
uncertainty is again a big problem with this next weather system
as it remains quite possible that much of its energy may miss our
region to the north. The NBM looks to be too aggressive with
precip chances early next week considering the uncertainty, so
PoPs have been trimmed back some. There could also be a second
follow-on shortwave that may bring another round of precip chances
as late as next Wednesday or Thursday. Guidance continues to show
cooler air moving into the region during the first half of next
week, potentially bringing temperatures back to or even slightly
below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period under
continued BKN-OVC high clouds. Winds will continue to follow
familiar diurnal trends with speeds generally aob 8 kts. FEW bases
around 10k ft will stick around over the next few hours but
scatter out after sunset.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours. NW`rly
winds will be favored at KIPL while KBLH can expected SW`rly
directions eventually veering to the NW. Abundant mid and high
level cloud cover will continue to stream over the region through
the forecast period, with perhaps a FEW lower bases around 10k ft
sticking around until just after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather pattern is slowly becoming more unsettled as a
weather system will remain just west of our area through
Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures and increased clouds will
be seen today before the system eventually passes across the
region on Friday bringing rain chances to the eastern districts.
Additionally this system will cool temperatures to near normal on
Friday. MinRH values will continue to be between 20-35% through
Thursday before briefly rising on Friday. Occasional breeziness,
especially across the western districts, will be common during the
next several days. Drying conditions and warming temperatures are
expected over the weekend before another weather system may
impact the region early next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office