407
FXUS65 KVEF 181135
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
435 AM PDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and a slow warming trend will yield a return to
  near normal temperatures through early next week.

* A weak midweek system will bring slightly cooler temperatures,
  increasing winds and clouds, and a chance of showers to portions
  of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The quiescent pattern continues across the region as ridging
continues to build in the wake of a potent trough currently
translating across the southern Rockies into the Plains. Increasing
heights will allow for a continuation of the slow, gradual warming
trend, with highs near seasonal norms expected by Sunday and Monday.
Given a lack of ample moisture as well as any appreciable forcing
mechanisms, the forecast also remains dry, maintaining the fall-like
feel into next week.

Ensemble guidance and cluster analyses continue to be in very good
agreement regarding the evolution of the upper pattern, with a low
pressure system currently west of Baja progged to translate
northeastward across southern California, weakening substantially
as it then progresses eastward across the Four Corners. Given
these trends and the expected track of the system, impacts locally
will largely be limited to an increase in moisture and cloud
cover, with the blended solution maintaining low (10-20%) chances
for precipitation over northwestern Arizona on Wednesday. A subtle
uptick in winds is also expected, but currently, winds look to
remain below Advisory criteria. Behind this system, a period of
ridging is expected to redevelop, yielding more dry, seasonable
conditions for the end of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
winds following typical diurnal directional patterns are expected
through the forecast period, with southwesterly winds early this
morning veering to the east by mid to late morning, and returning
to the southwest after sunset. Sustained speeds will remain under
8KT, with a band of high clouds around 20kft moving into the area
overnight. VFR conditions prevail.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Sustained wind speeds
across the area will remain around 10KT or less, and follow
typical diurnal directional patterns. The only exceptions may be
portions of the Owens Valley, including KBIH, and portions of the
Lower Colorado River Valley, including KIFP, where terrain-induced
winds could gust up to around 15KT for a brief period this
afternoon into early evening. VFR conditions otherwise prevail,
with high clouds with bases around 20-25kft expected,
particularly late in the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Phillipson


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NWS Flagstaff Office